BCG: Up to 3 million robotaxis could be on the roads by 2035

According to the latest analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), by 2035, at least 700,000—but potentially up to 3 million—fully autonomous robotaxis could be operating in major cities around the world, while in certain markets, fares may be lower than those of traditional taxi services.

BCG’s forecasts indicate that the adoption of robotaxi services will be fastest in the U.S. and China. In Europe, the pace of implementation will be influenced by fragmented regulatory environments and higher operating costs compared with the U.S. and China.

According to a BCG study, conservative estimates suggest that by 2035, 850,000 robotaxis could be on the roads in China, 350,000 in the U.S., and approximately 120,000 in Europe.

Consumer attitudes are, of course, a key factor for the widespread adoption of this technology. A BCG survey of more than 9,000 people found that about 60% of Chinese consumers are open to using robotaxis, while in the U.S. and Europe, only 30–35% would be willing to use the service.

BCG estimates that by 2030, robotaxi adoption could reach 60% in the U.S. and over 45% in Europe, as these services become increasingly attractive not only to early adopters, but also to those who prioritize safety, cost, and reliability over novelty.

Technology has already surpassed several critical thresholds. It is now clear that per-kilometer costs could fall significantly: to around $0.80 in the U.S. and approximately $0.40 in China. This provides a competitive advantage over both traditional and app-based taxi services (such as Uber, Lyft, and Bolt).

“According to BCG analyses, the spread of robotaxis will be an evolutionary, not revolutionary, process—not due to technological limits, but because the practical conditions for large-scale deployment develop gradually,” said Ádám Karakas, Executive Partner at BCG. Even in current robotaxi hubs such as San Francisco or Beijing, their share of the total taxi fleet remains below 1%.

“The pace of adoption will be influenced not only by consumer openness, but also by market entry costs, the time required to scale, and the extent to which these services can capture market share from other modes of transportation,” Karakas added.

The autonomous vehicle market has undergone major transformations over the past decade. Initial enthusiasm for robotaxis was tempered by practical challenges, leading several major companies to exit the market or shift strategies. Recently, however, commercial robotaxi services have launched in cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Beijing, giving the market a fresh boost.

According to BCG, not all cities are equally suitable for robotaxis. They are expected to consolidate first in economically developed and technologically advanced regions—initially in the U.S. and China, and then gradually in other parts of the world. Emerging economies with lower infrastructure levels and inexpensive labor for drivers are likely to lag behind, and may only become suitable for robotaxis after 2040.

Significant regional differences are also expected in operating costs. In Europe, initial costs will be higher than in the U.S. due to higher energy prices, service costs, and stricter regulations. In contrast, operational costs in China are 30–50% lower, thanks to cheaper technology and lower maintenance labor costs.

BCG estimates that, in the long term, robotaxis could replace 55–85% of urban trips in economically developed cities. Geographically, they could serve roughly 20% of a typical American metropolitan area.

High parking costs may lead many to prefer robotaxis over private cars, although private vehicles will continue to play a significant role. In areas where private car use is not discouraged by high parking fees, congestion charges, or low-emission zones, private vehicles are expected to remain dominant.

At the same time, larger autonomous vehicles—such as robotized suburban buses—could play a crucial role in future public transport, particularly in low-traffic areas where the cost of bus drivers is disproportionately high relative to passenger numbers. These vehicles can facilitate the so-called “first and last mile” connections to public transport hubs and help integrate underserved areas more effectively into the public transport network.